Experts: Illegal Immigration Lull at Southwest Border Likely Temporary

The number of immigrants illegally entering the United States is down at least temporarily because of deals cut with the United States’ southern neighbors and other measures, according to experts, but the crisis is far from over.
The Biden administration has taken credit for the recent drop, attributing it to new asylum rules limiting the number of people allowed to cross illegally into the country and through the CBP One app, which enables migrants to make appointments with Border Patrol to enter the United States.
Other factors limiting the number of illegal migrants crossing the border include deals with Mexico and Panama.
In December 2023, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas met with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, seeking help with decreasing illegal immigration.
This summer, the Biden administration promised to help pay for Panama’s efforts to repatriate hundreds of thousands of migrants headed to the United States via the Darien Gap, one of the most treacherous migration routes.
Biden’s efforts came after millions of people from more than 150 countries crossed the U.S. southern border illegally last year, drawing intense media attention with the 2024 election on the horizon.
Even with help from southern neighbors and a new executive order in place, illegal immigrant encounters stand at 2.4 million through June so far this fiscal year—likely to outpace the 2022 total of 2.8 million.
Last year, a record 3.2 million illegal immigrants entered the United States. More than 10 million migrants have crossed into the country unlawfully since Biden reversed Trump administration policies such as “Remain in Mexico,” under which asylum seekers waited until their asylum claim could be heard.
The arrangement between the Biden administration and Mexico triggered a crackdown on migrants headed to the U.S. southern border. Mexican officials have rounded up tens of thousands of migrants, busing them to the southern cities of Villahermosa and Tapachula.
Some U.S.-bound migrants in Mexico reported being sent back to southern Mexico as many as six times, causing them to run out of money and become stuck at least temporarily.
That’s significant, because the CPB One app currently doesn’t work south of Mexico City, meaning migrants must start their journey all over again or remain stranded in southern Mexico.
The app allows migrants on their way to illegally cross the U.S. southern border to set up an appointment with border patrol at ports of entry. The immigrants are processed at ports of entry in Arizona, Texas, and California and released into the country to await asylum hearings.
Many illegal immigrants’ asylum claims are ultimately rejected because they came for economic reasons, instead of fearing persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion.
“Federal law makes clear that those entering the country illegally should be expelled from the United States, except in very rare circumstances,“ Paxton said in a statement. ”However, the Biden border app does not and cannot verify that an illegal immigrant would qualify for an exception, which would prevent them from being deported.”
Todd Bensman is the senior national security fellow at the conservative Center for Immigration Studies think tank, and he spoke to The Epoch Times on Aug. 13 from Panama, where he assessed the number of migrants coming through the Darien Gap.
Traffic was down substantially, he said, but some migrants he spoke with on the Colombia side of the jungle passage seemed to be in a holding pattern, waiting to see whether others were making it through.
“There’s a lull right now for sure, a decisive lull in Darien,” he said.
Venezuelans, who make up the most significant number of migrants trekking through the dangerous route into Panama, may be waiting to see what happens in the wake of their country’s contested presidential election, he said.
President Nicolás Maduro has refused to step down after the opposition party running against the de facto dictator claimed victory in the July 28 election. The United States has refused to recognize Maduro’s claim that he won.
Maduro’s forces have rounded up more than 2,000 dissidents who demonstrated or cast doubt on his having won a third term despite evidence showing that he lost by more than two to one.
Bensman predicted that traffic would stay low for the next couple of months as migrants weigh the situation.
“The migrants are definitely nervous about what the Panamanians said out loud that they were going to do and the fact that some barbed wire went up on some of the trails,” he said.
“But I think that’s temporary because the Panamanians are really kind of still letting everybody in.”
Bensman said Panama is deporting about 50 to 100 migrants with criminal records out of the country each week by plane.
Panamanian officials who spoke with him said American personnel aren’t helping with the operation, he added. And the Biden administration has yet to provide funds to pay for repatriation flights for immigrants as promised.
Mayorkas, who attended Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino’s July 1 inauguration, signed a memorandum of understanding to provide financial assistance to Panama for illegal immigrant repatriation flights out of the country.
Bensman said he believes Mexico’s actions of rounding up migrants near the U.S. border and busing them back south has made the most difference in the number of migrants attempting to illegally cross the United States’ southwest border.
The illegal immigrants needed a sponsor and to purchase their own airplane tickets to qualify for the program.
Border Patrol numbers filtered for those CHNV nationalities arriving at the Miami airport for fiscal year 2023 through June 2024 total almost 335,000, with all interior ports totaling more than half a million, according to CBP statistics.
Internal government documents showed that the same Social Security numbers, addresses, and phone numbers were used hundreds of times in some cases. Also, 100,948 forms were filled out by 3,218 serial sponsors, meaning sponsors whose numbers appeared on 20 or more forms.
Documents showed that 24 of the 1,000 most used sponsor Social Security numbers belonged to people who were deceased. Also, 100 physical addresses were used between 124 and 739 times on more than 19,000 forms.
Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green (R-Tenn.) called mass parole an “unlawful” program that obscured the problem of an overrun border.